Executive Director of IEA presents WEO results to REEEP at COP14
Poznan, 08.12.2008
Nobuo Tanaka presented a summary of the IEA's World Energy Outlook at a REEEP dinner comprised of 30 diplomats, development bank officials, industry association representatives and financial institutions.
The dinner was held during the UNFCCC COP14 event in Poznan, Poland. Mr Tanaka presented key findings from the 2008 World Energy Outlook report which now has two base case scenarios: 450ppm and 550ppm.
Mr. Tanaka stressed that current reference scenarios are unsustainable in the long term. Developing countries must join the path to a "low carbon" future, as even if OECD countries lowered their carbon emissions to pre-1990 levels, global CO2 levels would still exceed 450ppm. Thus, the world would still be 2-2.5 degrees Celcius warmer even with dramatic CO2 reductions in OECD countries.
The key instruments to ensuring that the world achieves a 450ppm target are primarily energy efficiency and carbon capture & storage (CCS), as the IEA sees the consumption of coal doubling over the next 30 years. While renewables will have an increasingly larger portion of the world's energy mix, renewables are not seen to be more than 10% of the total without dramatic changes in policy.
Thus, demand must fall through energy efficiency measures and coal must become "clean" (using CCS technologies). Even with these measures, the future is projected to have oil prices between $100-200/barrel and carbon prices of between $180-250/tonne.
To access this year's report, go to: http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/