China roadmap for 30% renewable energy penetration by 2030


The Chinese government has issued medium and long term development plans for renewable energy (RE) which set targets of meeting 10% of primary energy demand with renewables by 2010 and 15% by 2020. 

Encouraged by these targets and China's RE Law, the renewable energy industry there has seen booming growth.  However, looking ahead to 2030, renewable energy still faces challenges, including high costs, the need for resource assessment, limitations in the grid and other factors. Currently there is not any clear idea for a national RE target for 2030.


To undertake the preliminary research on the role that RE could have for China by 2030, underpinning a specific RE target such as 30% with a deep analysis of economic development targets, energy resource availability, and environmental factors, as a sound reference for government policymaking.

Main Activities

  • Build upon the previous work done by ERI for the Chinese government on setting the RE target for 2020
  • Analyse the significance of a high RE share of the energy mix in comparison to other scenarios
  • Examine China’s inherent RE resource potential, including technically viable resource quantities, available land area, water potential, grid capability etc.
  • Depict China's RE development roadmaps with supply curves and forecasts of RE cost competitiveness
  • Set appropriate RE targets in view of resource availability, cost effectiveness, and sustainable development demand
  • Summarise the challenges to realising the targets, the key projects needed,  and the necessary policy instruments
  • Make an in-depth scenario analysis in analysing the 30% target and other possible targets

Expected Impact

  • Research output will serve as a basis for government to clearly understand the future RE picture
  • Help the Chinese energy authority to outline the long-term RE target for 2030;
  • Research will influence the Chinese government's strategy policy in combating the climate change
  • Academic organisations and high- and new-tech enterprises will have a basis on which to formulate their research and business plans

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Programme sector: 

Renewable Energy (RE) (Policy&Regulation)

Stage of project: 





2009 - 2010


€ 118,800 including co-funding from CRED

Implementing agency: 

Center for Renewable Energy Deverlopment(CRED) of ERI

REEEP grant funded by:

United Kingdom