business-as-usual scenario

Synonyms

BAU scenario, , BAU scenarios

Definition

The future is projected or predicted on the assumption that operating conditions and applied policies remain what they are at present. See also baseline, models, scenario. (IPCC, 2014)

A scenario is a plausible description of how the future may develop based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and riving forces (e.g., rate of technological change, prices) on social and economic development, energy use, etc. Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor orecasts, but are useful to provide a view of the implications of alternative developments and actions. See also baseline, business as usual, models. (IPCC-SRREN, 2014); the business as usual provides a view of a future scenario without any implemented changes or newly enforced regulatons imposed by governments changing things from how they are now - business as usual. IPCC-SRREN, 2014