decision making under uncertainty


uncertainty, making decisions under uncertainty


1. Quantitative definition: Measurement that characterizes the dispersion of values that could reasonably be attributed to a parameter. 2. Qualitative definition: A general and imprecise term that refers to the lack of certainty in data and methodology choices, such as the application of non-representative factors or methods, incomplete data on sources and sinks, lack of transparency etc. (WRI, 2013); An expression of the degree to which a value or relationship is unknown. Uncertainty can result from lack of information or from disagreement about what is known or even knowable. Uncertainty may originate from many sources, such as quantifiable errors in the data, ambiguously defined concepts or terminology, or uncertain projections of human behavior. Uncertainty can therefore be represented by quantitative measures, for example, a range of values calculated by various models, or by qualitative statements, for example, reflecting the judgment of a team of experts. See also Likelihood and Confidence. (IPCC-SPEX, 2014)

Broader terms


Narrower terms

real options analysis